Skill of Warige as A Seasonal Climate Forecast in Lombok, Indonesia

Yasin, Ismail and Mahrup, Mahrup and Ma'shum, Mansur and Idris, Muhamad Husni (2016) Skill of Warige as A Seasonal Climate Forecast in Lombok, Indonesia. In: Proceedings The 1st International Conference on Science and Technology (ICST) 2016. Mataram University Press, Mataram, pp. 202-206. ISBN 978-602-6640-00-0

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Abstract

Seasonal climate variability has a pronounced effect on the agricultural sector in Lombok. A seasonal climate forecast model based on indigenous knowledge was implemented and tested its forecast skill. The seasonal climate forecast implements the day of “tumbuk” (overhead sun) in Lombok (8.5o S) which is associated with moon phases. If overhead sun corresponds to crescent (6th), it is predicted to have above normal rainfall for in coming season. If overhead sun is on a full moon phase (16th), it is predicted to have normal (average) rainfall, and when overhead sun falls on last quarter or waning phase (26th), rainfall tend to be below normal or dryer than average. The data used were a 60 year monthly rainfall data over Lombok Island. Java Calendar available at http://kalenderjawa.com was applied to find out moon phase at overhead sun since year 1950. Verification of forecast using 60 year monthly rainfall data in Lombok shows a significant differences of seasonal rainfall of wet years compared to dry year. Forecast skill Analysis using LEPS method shows skill score ranged from 3,6 to 24.meaning that forecasting capability of Warige quite accurate for Lombok Island’s rainfall. It is strongly recommended exploring the possibility of basic principle of Warige to be applied in broad areas of Indonesia which have similar geographical condition with the original area of Warige in Lombok.

Item Type: Book Section
Keywords (Kata Kunci): Seasonal climate variability, Seasonal climate forecast, Warige Tumbuk, overhead sun, Sasak calendar, moon phase., forecast skill, LEPS
Subjects: S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Pertanian
Depositing User: Husni idris
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2019 07:51
Last Modified: 03 Sep 2019 00:45
URI: http://eprints.unram.ac.id/id/eprint/13969

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