Sulistiyono Heri, Heri Sulistiyono and Leonard M Lye, Leonard M Lye Predicted Regional Hydrologic and Climatic Variables under Climate Change Scenarios using Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Future Water Resource Studies in Lombok, Indonesia. ResearchGate.
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Abstract
As water resources are directly dependent on climatic variables, they have the potential to be strongly impacted by climate change with wide-ranging consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Therefore, water resource studies should consider the possible effects of climate change. In this paper, the development of predicted regional climatic variables under climate change scenarios using statistical downscaling techniques is described. Multiple linear regressions, nonlinear regressions, artificial neural networks, and a new proposed model are used to develop competitive models that can well simulate the following regional climatic variables based on the GCM outputs: humidity, rainfall, sunshine, temperature, and windspeed. The the Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient (NSE), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and range of predicted variables are utilized to select the best model of each regional climatic variable from the competitive models. The Jangkok River, one of the first priority rivers in Lombok (a small island in Indonesia) has been chosen as a representative catchment for a case study. The GCM outputs from the second generation of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CGCM2 - CCCMA) from 1971 to 2100 will be used in the downscaling exercise. The results showed that the developed ANN model performed very well for simulating regional future climatic variables based on a single driving GCM; however for simulating regional future climatic variables based on multiple driving GCM, the new proposed HYAS model has a better performance than ANN for regional climate change studies in Lombok.
| Item Type: | Other |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) |
| Divisions: | Fakultas Teknik |
| Depositing User: | Ph.D. Heri Sulistiyono |
| Date Deposited: | 02 Jul 2023 02:32 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Jul 2023 02:32 |
| URI: | http://eprints.unram.ac.id/id/eprint/40696 |
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