The Development of the SARIMA Model for Flood Disaster Resilience

Sulistiyono Heri, Heri Sulistiyono and Khan, Faisal Irshad and Saidah, Humairo and Setiawan, Ery and Yasa, I Wayan and Suteja, I Wayan and Salehudin, Salehudin and Jayanegara, I Dewa Gede The Development of the SARIMA Model for Flood Disaster Resilience. The First Mandalika International Multi-Conference on Science and Engineering 2022.

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Abstract

Some agencies in the world warned that the recent flood disaster has been getting worse all over the world. Engineers have studied flooding and its impact with various simulation models. Yet, there is no model considered the best for all estimations of flood disasters in the future. In this paper, the authors propose a procedure to develop the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The model is for generating future rainfall. In this paper, the authors use the procedure for drainage evaluation in an effort of flood risk resilience. The authors use the rainfall data of the Monjok Station from 2008 to 2018 in the demonstration of the proposed procedure to generate 20 years of rainfall data from 2008 to 2028. This paper evaluates the flood resilience of the Wahidin drainage system. The authors use the Correlation Coefficient and Volume Error to determine the best model. The results showed that the best SARIMA model was (0, 1, 1) with a Correlation Coefficient of 0.71 and a Volume Error of 13%. Based on the model, the 10-year return period of future rainfall is 137.60 mm. This rainfall will cause runoff in theWahidin 01, 02, and 03 of 4.35 m3/sec, 1.22 m3/sec, and 9.496 m3/sec, respectively. However, because the capacity of the three canals is only 1.32 m3/s, only Wahidin 02 canal is safe until 2028. Wahidin 01 and 03 channels are not.

Item Type: Article
Keywords (Kata Kunci): SARIMA Model · Correlation Coefficient · Volume Error · Drainage Evaluation · Flood Risk Resilience
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions: Fakultas Teknik
Depositing User: Dr I Wayan Yasa
Date Deposited: 04 Sep 2023 03:47
Last Modified: 04 Sep 2023 03:47
URI: http://eprints.unram.ac.id/id/eprint/42550

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